Will Egypt Turn Out Like Iran?

After the Shah left Iran during the 1979 Revolution, 99.8% in favor of an Islamic Republic. The popular support for an Islamic government in Iran can be attributed to the country's 99% Muslim population. When I first looked at the statistic that showed Egypt's 90% Muslim population, my initial though that was that Egypt would turn out an Islamic Republic like Iran. However, it was not until I looked at the different concentrations of branches of Islam in both countries that I realizes that I could be wrong. In Iran, 90% of the population is composed of Shia Muslims; however, in Egypt, 90% of the population is composed of Sunni Muslims. The basic difference in ideology between the two branches of Islam is that, after the death of the Prophet Muhammad, Shias believed that the next leaders of Islam should come from a direct line of descent from Muhammad, whereas Sunnis believed that the next leader of Islam should be voted by the world's Muslims. From these basic ideological differences between Iran's and Egypt's respective populations, I can conclude that in the area of determining leadership, Iran believes that certain people are born with the right to rule, and seems to believe in a more restrictive system of leadership. Out these beliefs came an Islamic "democracy," in which appointed religious leaders determine who can and cannot run in elections. However, Egypt, with its Sunni beliefs, seems more more liberal in its view of leadership, and seems as if it will choose its next leader based on popular support, not a predetermined "right" to rule. From this assumption, I predict that Egypt's next government will be a Western style, open democracy in which anyone is allowed to run for elections, much like the democracy in the U.S.; however, the predominantly Muslim population will most like choose a leader who encourages Islam's influence on politics.

*Image- http://www.faqs.org/photo-dict/phrase/1434/Egyptian-flag.html

Fall of Communism Blog Bost

Who or what what the primary contributor to the fall of communism? I've been trying to determine how after decades of suppressive regimes, nonviolent protests and peaceful opposition were able to overthrow such a strict and powerful government. To me, it seems that the only reason that nonviolent opposition was able to be effective in reforming the USSR was a process of liberalization of the Soviet government that started in 1985 with the election of Mikhail Gorbachev. In his speech to the United Nations on December 7, 1988, Gorbachev said, "The compelling necessity of the principle of freedom of choice is also clear to us. The failure to recognize this, to recognize it, is fraught with very dire consequences, consequences for world peace. Denying that right to the peoples, no matter what the pretext, no matter what the words are used to conceal it, means infringing upon even the unstable balance that is, has been possible to achieve." To me, this seems to be the turning point in the fall of communism. After years of strict governments, Gorbachev suddenly realized the importance of granting his citizens freedom of choice. What prevented any major reform prior to the Gorbachev era was the people's inability to make their own decisions. The year after Gorbachev decided to respect his citizens right to freedom of choice was the year during which everything changed for the USSR. In 1989, Solidarity won elections, borders were opened to the West, the the Soviet Union began to crumble. Mikhail Gorbachev allowed nature to take its course, and let his people decide their fate. By granting freedom of choice to citizens and allowing internal to reform to occur naturally, Mikhail Gorbachev both stimulated and allowed the natural reform that led to the fall of the USSR, and was the primary reason for its eventual collapse.

*image of Gorbachev during 1988 U.N. speech-

http://www.emersonkent.com/speeches/freedom_of_choice.htm